CG
It just dawned on me that Industrial Light + Magic hasn't won the oscar for best visual effects in over ten years. Pretty stunning considering that this was the preeminant vfx house for decades. Not even the new Star Wars films could bring them out of their losing streak. Their sterling reputation has worked against them, with the Academy becoming more apt to recognize the "little guys" for lesser work. They were robbed on more than one occasion, Twister, The Perfect Storm, ROTS (not even nominated!).
Commercial tools (3d studio, maya) as well as the proliferation of cheap workstations have homogenized the entire industry to a certain extent. Nowadays invisible effects are an effective way to save money on production. It's more about finding the right project to work on, helmed by a visionary director who demands ambitious effects that capture the imagination. Less Michael Bay (exploding cars) and more Spielberg/Cameron.
The mystique isn't completely gone but the wow factor is definitely diminished. I think it's time to unleash the 3D films.
EDIT: Typical. A few days after writing this, I stumble upon the trailer for the upcoming
Pirates 2. The film looks absolutely stunning with the highlight being the completely synthetic Davy Jones. I'm almost positive this will take the Oscar.
1) Big wow factor with eye-popping photo-realistic CG characters.
2) Film is sure to do great business, Hollywood loves this.
3) Competition is light this year, no big Weta shows. Superman Returns, X-men 3, Harry Potter are nice but nothing revolutionary.
4) John Knoll is DUE! The man deserves an Oscar after toiling for years on the prequels with nothing to show for it. On top of that he co-authored Photoshop. He's gotta win.
My stone-cold LOCK OF THE YEAR. Other than "the Warriors will probably miss the playoffs again while finishing with a decent record for a non-playoff team. This gives them the 7-10th pick where they won't be able to get any impact player to reverse the trend."